By Mark Pruner
First, the good news in the first week of March, we’ve had 8 sales compared to 15 sales for the whole month of March. Our inventory has risen to 149 single family home listings and our contracts are up to 80 deals signed. All of this is good news. Sales are trying to get back to normal as we get more inventory. Inventory is going up even as we have more contracts signed which pushes inventory down which means inventory is coming on faster than deals are being done.
Some people may see that as a sign of a declining market, but inventory increases every spring, particularly in March and April. Contracts traditionally get signed in April and May and our biggest sales months are June and July when we see our most closing. So, let’s look at how the neighborhoods are doing so far in Greenwich.
I’m going use the ten Greenwich elementary school districts as a stand-in for neighborhoods. The good thing about our school districts is they are compact and approximate neighborhoods. I could have used the 12 voting districts, but these often wander around with District 10 and 11 splitting backcountry and mid-country on a north/south line, while the Parkway school district has all of backcountry and most of our 2-acre zone..
Please don’t equate the name of the geographic district with being a comment about the quality of the school. Yes, good schools are a factor in the demand for, and the pricing of, houses, but lot size and location have a lot more to do with house prices. Having said that, Greenwich’s good schools are a big plus for the town. (We do need to do better, however. Too many of buildings are showing their age.)
Also, let’s not forget the attraction of our 10 private schools that draw students from all over Greenwich and outside of Greenwich. Lastly, when I talk about say the Glenville school district, it’s really just shorthand for the southwest corner of mid-country with a little bit of southwest backcountry and Chickahominy thrown in, it’s not just Glenville.
One of the amazing things about sales this year is the even distribution of sales throughout the town. That even distribution actually says that we are getting a disproportionate number of sales from our 4-acre and 2-acre zones in backcountry and mid-country. A lot in our 4-acre zone is 16 times the size of our R-7 zone which is only 0.176 acres or roughly a sixth of an acre. More about why that is when we talk about the Parkway district below.
The Greenwich Real Estate Market by School District
(from north to south and west to east)
Parkway School District
Sales YTD: 12
Contracts: 12
Inventory: 44
Sold DOM: 189
The Parkway district is a standout in sales with 12 of our 72 sales so far this year. One of the reasons for this is that it is by far our largest school district spanning all of backcountry most of the 2-acre zone in mid-country. The other thing pumping up sales is paradoxically because we have a slower market in backcountry. As a result, we actually have listings to sell with 44 listings in backcountry, nearly double any other district. You can also see the slower market by the average days on market of 189 days, our second highest DOM. That 189 days is for the houses that did sell. If you look at the 44 active listings, they have been on for an average of 298 days. Much of this is due to our slower market at the higher end of our price range over $5 million of which we have a bunch in backcountry.
Glenville School District
Sales YTD: 10
Contracts: 6
Inventory: 20
Sold DOM: 96
The market is much tighter in the Glenville school district, where we only have 20 listings with 10 sales and 6 contracts. We almost have as many sales and contracts as we have sales. Our DOM is also down to 96. (NB: These “average” days on market need to be taken with a grain of salt, as one sale of a house that has been on the market for a year or more can bring the average way up. For example, Parkway had a sale that had been on for 398 days and Glenville had a sale that had been on for 265 days.)
North Street School District
Sales YTD: 4
Contracts: 23
Inventory: 25
Sold DOM: 16
North Street school district is where today’s action is. We’ve only had 4 sales so far this year, but look at those 23 contracts. One of them is my and my brother’s listing that went to a non-contingent contract in 8 days from the date it went active. In fact, of the 23 contracts outstanding only 4 are contingent contracts. Cash is the emperor. The 25 listings also means that buyer’s actually have something to buy. Sixteen days on market is tight so if you want to buy here bring cash or roll the dice and waive the mortgage contingency. (This is a lot easier to do if you are underwritten pre-approved. Unless a listing has been on for more than 2 months, your chances of winning a bidding war with a 45-day mortgage contingency is slim).
North Mianus School District
Sales YTD: 2
Contracts: 9
Inventory: 6
Sold DOM: 73
North Mianus is another very competitive school district. It actually has more contracts than sales or inventory. You also shouldn’t take much solace in that 73 average days on market. It consists of 1 sale listed for 145 days and one listed for 0 days, i.e. an off-market sale.
New Lebanon School District
Sales YTD: 1
Contracts: 0
Inventory: 4
Sold DOM: 14
New Lebanon and Hamilton Avenue have lots of condos and multi-family, so when you look at just single-family homes in these two school districts, it doesn’t look like there is much activity. If, however you look at their bread and butter sales, condos and multi-family houses, things move quickly.
Hamilton Avenue School District
Sales YTD: 0
Contracts: 2
Inventory: 1
Sold DOM: –
If a house does come on in the New Lebanon or Hamilton Avenue school district, be prepared to move quickly. It won’t last long if it is in good shape. If it is not in good shape and you have a relative in the trades, you might even be able to wait for the public open house on the weekend instead of going to see the day it is listed.
Julian Curtiss School District
Sales YTD: 3
Contracts: 3
Inventory: 20
Sold DOM: 264
This school district covers three distinct areas; Chickahominy, our high-end waterfront (Belle Haven, Mead Point and Indian Harbor) and downtown Greenwich. Each one has different market demand. Chickahominy has no inventory. Parents hand their house down to their kids. The waterfront communities have most of the inventory and none of sales so far. Downtown has all of the sales so far this year, since we have some inventory available under $5 million.
Cos Cob School District
Sales YTD: 3
Contracts: 1
Inventory: 6
Sold DOM: 73
Once again be ready to move as low inventory means low sales. You have a choice of 6 listings. Remember thought 4 people already beat you to the other listings that came on. Once again, it helps to be good friends with a contractor as those houses that need work still take some time to sell, well sometimes they do.
Riverside School District
Sales YTD: 2
Contracts: 6
Inventory: 8
Sold DOM: 4
Four days on market, that’s almost impossible. Think about it. List on Monday, offer on Tuesday, inspection on Wednesday, signed contract on Thursday. The reality is we had sales that had 13 and 18 DOM and two with zero days on market.
There’s a reason half the sales have been off market. If you announce in your office, that you have a possible Riverside listing, not only do people from your firm stop by to see you, but two days later some agent from a firm you haven’t heard in Westport calls you asks when you are going to have the Riverside listing signed.
Dundee School District
Sales YTD: 3
Contracts: 4
Inventory: 1
Sold DOM: 158
Dundee school district and Dundee enrollment are different. As an international baccalaureate school, Dundee accepts students from a variety of areas in Greenwich. As you might expect it’s very popular with our international community, most of whom aren’t in the school district. The Dundee district is a small area of Old Greenwich on both sides of the Post Road. They get into Dundee by right, which was given them when they were redistricted out of the Old Greenwich school district decades ago. A lot of are more affordable house in our R-7 zone are in this Dundee school district straddling the Post Road. (If you are looking here it’s a good time to read my previous articles Sentinel on combat buying which are Googleable).
Old Greenwich School District
Sales YTD: 5
Contracts: 6
Inventory: 7
Sold DOM: 32
Five sold, six under contract, seven houses in inventory; bring money, as none of the 7 listings are under $3 million and one of the seven listings actually went to contract while I was writing this article.
So what is a buyer to do? Go where the crowds aren’t. We have 150 listings, (it also went up one listing while I was writing this article.) Of those 150 listings, 90 of them have been on for more than three months. Those owners are getting antsy, the new spring listings are coming on and many of the owners with holdover listings want to make a deal.
Once again, it helps if you have money. Of those 90 older listings 77 of them are over $2.5 million. If you see a house that you like, but it’s only a little higher than you want to pay, go see it and make a good offer. You never know what is going to happen.
Mark Pruner is a Realtor with Compass. He can be reached at 203-817-2871 or mark.pruner@compass.com
