By Anne White
The League of Women Voters of Greenwich hosted an economic policy discussion titled “Tariffs, Taxes, and the Trump Economy” featuring economist Larry Kantor. The event, held via Zoom, explored Kantor’s perspectives on economic policies, including tariffs, taxation, and regulatory changes under the current administration. Throughout the presentation, Kantor emphasized that his analysis was based on his own economic assessment and not on political considerations.
Kantor, an operating partner at Atlas Merchant Capital and former head of research at Barclays Capital, provided his personal viewpoint on the potential impacts of President Trump’s proposed economic policies. He stated that his approach was rooted in economic and empirical analysis, rather than political ideology. Kantor asserted that presidents often receive too much credit or blame for the state of the economy, arguing that external factors such as business cycles, monetary policy, and global economic conditions play a more significant role.
According to Kantor’s analysis, he believes that tariffs could have broad economic consequences. He suggested that the substantial tariff increases proposed by the administration—potentially including a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% to 20% on all other imports—could lead to reduced GDP, higher inflation, and possible retaliatory measures from trading partners. Kantor cited previous tariff policies as a basis for his conclusions, stating that his view aligns with most economic studies, which he claims generally support free trade over protectionist measures.
Kantor further argued that tariffs historically have had unintended economic consequences. He referenced the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which he stated led to a severe decline in global trade and exacerbated the Great Depression. He also discussed the tariffs implemented during Trump’s first term, noting that in his assessment, they raised prices, did not significantly increase manufacturing jobs, and resulted in retaliatory tariffs from other nations. However, Kantor acknowledged that some studies suggest tariffs have had political benefits, with support for such policies increasing in regions that were most affected by them.
On taxation, Kantor presented his view that extending the 2017 tax cuts, as proposed by President Trump, would likely add significantly to the federal deficit. He referenced estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which project that extending these tax cuts could increase the national deficit by approximately $4.6 trillion over the next decade. He stated that, in his opinion, additional tax cuts beyond the extensions would face challenges in Congress due to concerns about federal debt.
Kantor also commented on the broader fiscal landscape, asserting that high deficits and rising federal debt have already begun influencing financial markets. He expressed the opinion that continued deficit spending and debt accumulation could eventually lead to higher interest rates and investor concerns about the stability of U.S. fiscal policy. However, he also noted that the U.S. dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency, a status that he does not believe is likely to change in the near term due to the depth and liquidity of U.S. financial markets.
In addition to tariffs and taxation, Kantor shared his perspective on regulatory policy, stating that the administration’s efforts to roll back certain regulations could have mixed economic effects. While he suggested that reducing regulatory complexity could improve business efficiency, he acknowledged that regulations serve important roles in maintaining financial stability, consumer protections, and environmental safeguards. He also pointed out that many regulatory rollbacks face legal and political obstacles that could limit their impact.
Kantor also addressed immigration policy, which he believes is a key factor influencing U.S. economic growth. He argued that reductions in immigration, as proposed by the administration, could contribute to labor shortages, particularly in sectors such as construction, agriculture, and healthcare. He emphasized that his analysis suggests immigration plays a critical role in maintaining workforce growth and supporting key entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare. According to his view, a declining U.S. population and labor force growth could present long-term economic challenges.
Throughout the event, Kantor repeatedly underscored that his presentation was based on his personal economic analysis and not political advocacy. The League of Women Voters of Greenwich emphasized that the event was held as part of its nonpartisan educational mission and that it does not endorse or oppose any political party or candidate.
Following Kantor’s remarks, a Q&A session was held, during which attendees posed questions about investment strategies, economic growth, and fiscal policy. Kantor responded by reiterating his view that economic policy decisions, particularly on tariffs and taxation, could have significant long-term effects on markets. He also noted that while some deregulation efforts could improve economic efficiency, their overall impact would depend on the specific industries affected.
At the conclusion of the event, the League of Women Voters of Greenwich thanked Kantor for sharing his perspectives and encouraged attendees to continue engaging in discussions on economic and policy issues.
The full recording of the event will be made available on the League’s website for those who were unable to attend.
