By Anne W. Semmes
On December 7, always the first Wednesday of this month, it’s time for the Greenwich Prognosticators to gather for their once-a-year luncheon meeting at the Greenwich Country Club to predict what will be the financial future for 2023. Centered traditionally on their table was that crystal ball found in a magician’s shop by the group’s founder, the late gynecologist and obstetrician Dr. Brooks Hoffman.
But holding forth was retired investment advisor Geoff Parkinson, cofounder with Hoffman, who has presided over its membership since its founding in 1975. The present 14-members are down from a peak of 24 but have impressive titles: First Selectman Fred Camillo, and predecessor Peter Tesei, now wearing two hats heading up Pathways and the Greenwich Symphony, Police Chief Jim Heavey, former Selectman Peter Crumbine, probate Judge David Hopper, former State Senator Scott Frantz, Bob DeAngelo former head of the YMCA, realtor Mark Pruner, Bill Ferdinand of U.S. Trust, Dick Kriskey, managing partner of Livingston Builders, Sam Telerico, Hill House board president, Mark Curtis, founder and CEO of Splash Carwash, and last and not least Peter Barhydt, Chief Marketing Officer and Contributing Editor at the Greenwich Sentinel.
And yes, no women. “We have had First Selectwomen Ruth Sims, Rebecca Breed, and Lolly Prince,” says Parkinson. “I tried to encourage them to keep coming, but they got involved in other things and so we don’t have any women. But the point is that almost every Selectman, going back to the earliest days, has been part of this, which is great because that kind of involvement keeps it focused on Greenwich.”
So, with the Wall Street Journal predicting this week that “the majority of voters think the economy will be worse in 2023,” Parkinson shares his surprise. “So, when we had our results this year, there was a fairly positive outlook going through 2023, even though there was a lot of discussion about the recession, decline in the market, and the economy.”
“This is a younger group now,” he reported, “and one thing that I noticed is that men of age, like myself, we tend to be a little more cautious. We tend to be a little more circumspect. The younger guys are a little more optimistic.”
So, the winning Prognosticator for 2022 is a younger member, Mark Curtis. His figures predicted for 2022 came the closest to those listed this November. He had 35,000 for the Dow Jones listed number at 34,590; his 15,000 for the Nasdaq listed at 11,468, his 4.5 for the Prime interest rate was listed at 7 percent, his 6 percent for the Inflation rate was listed at 7.75 percent, his $3.60 for the Cost of a gallon of regular gas was listed at $3.47, and his $1,900 for the Price of Gold was listed at $1,760.
Predictions for 2024 were off the table for the press. But Parkinson does share there’s a prediction time limit of five minutes for members. “People ask questions, and it goes back and forth,” he tells. And there’s lots of topics to discuss across that table – the real estate market for one. “We usually talk a lot about real estate. The local real estate was humming. There was this immigration out of New York City because of all the problems that were in the city.” But then came, “a record low level of inventory…and these interest rates started going up like they did…so all of a sudden, the real estate just clammed up.”
And on Police Chief Jim Heavey’s mind? “What stuns him is the amount of car thefts that are taking place. He said that it’s almost remarkable to him that people who have had their cars stolen because they left the doors unlocked and the keys inside the car, have also had it happen again. People are so busy, they’re so distracted, they’re looking at their phone, they’re probably getting out of the car with their phone in front of them and they just walk in the house or whatever.”
Heavey had also addressed, tells Parkinson, “We should be on edge about this fentanyl drug, because its mixed in with other drugs and I think can even be in the marijuana products. So, we are trying to legalize marijuana like it’s just not that big of a problem… It’s a gateway into more drugs.”
Another concern Parkinson regularly shares with the group is the heavy load of taxes he’s documented in the state of Connecticut. His list of taxes counts 46 different taxes. “Imagine a business that was structured in such a way that they had to pay most of these taxes…So, Scott Frantz, an expert in financial matters, and I have had an interest in a group called the Yankee Institute, which tracks Connecticut finance taxes and the legislature in general. So, I show this to the group to remind them that this is the list of revenue raising sources in the State of Connecticut, a total of 344. Scott thinks there may be a few more.” He adds, “The Wall Street Journal listed Connecticut only four up from the bottom of the least tax-friendly states.”
So, Parkinson notes, “That is causing immigration out of the state. So, we’re losing tax base, even though we are gaining possibly in population.”
Another loss in our town his group is noticing is the lack of young people wanting to serve in nonprofits. “Service organizations are losing members. They’re just so busy. They’re involved with their families than maybe they ever were…So, civic engagement, I think, is declining.” He shares how Peter Tesei has seen firsthand the challenges of nonprofits in getting people involved. “Peter points out that staffing for nonprofits, you try to pay these people well, but in some cases, you’re almost at a point where people aren’t as motivated to work because there are benefits that they’ve been getting or have gotten. Also, the work is more difficult.”
Parkinson, whose family is traceable to 1954 in Greenwich, has seen a lot of change, especially in his neighborhood. “We love Greenwich,” he tells, “and we are neighborly, but even on this road there’s been a tremendous turnover, people coming out of the city and coming to Greenwich…I knew most of my neighbors because they’d come to a picnic and we had 55 people come, and now, we try to have a picnic and it’s just so many people that always come, and none of the new people show up.”
Parkinson was no doubt proud when his daughter, Heather P. Wright showed up at the December lunch. The former executive director of the Greenwich Center for Hope and Renewal she is now Pastor of Care and Connection at Stanwich Church. “She came to bless the group, their vision, and their future,” says Parkinson. “She was a blessing to the group.”
