By Harry Arora
While foreign policy is a Federal matter, I hear anxiety and concern in our community about the Russian military buildup around Ukraine. Yesterday’s news of direct intervention in Eastern Ukraine has many asking what it exactly means and why Americans should be involved in a Russia – Ukraine dispute. While I am a state rep, my past work in global economics provides me with some insights. Below is the background/implications of this crisis in the fewest words possible.
Background
Ukraine became independent in 1991 when the former Soviet Union split up and was replaced by 15 independent countries. Ukraine is the second largest of those former Soviet countries, with 41 MM. people. Ukrainians have since then wanted to follow other Eastern European nations like Poland in becoming part of Europe by joining the European Union and NATO. That would lead to an improved standard of living and prosperity. However, Russia has been opposed to losing its influence on Ukraine and does NOT want Ukraine to join NATO or the EU.
2014 Crimean and Eastern Ukraine conflict
When the prior pro-Russian Ukrainian President disapproved of an EU association agreement, protests broke out, leading to the ouster of the pro-Russian government and formation of a pro-EU government in Feb 2014. That led to Putin’s 2014 invasion of Crimea. – a popular tourist destination and a Russian military base. Following the Russian seizure, Crimea, with 2 MM people, and a Russian-speaking majority, passed a constitution change joining the “Russian Federation.” At the same time, Russia also started supporting a separatist insurgency in two other provinces in Eastern Ukraine – Donetsk and Luhansk. Since 2014, 14,000 have died in the conflict between Russian military-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces in those two provinces.
Feb 2022 recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk
Yesterday, Feb 21, 2022, Russia recognized those two provinces as independent countries and sent its military forces, calling them peacekeepers. This action ends any Ukrainian hope of having control or sovereignty over those two provinces. One can expect them to follow the Crimean example of declaring themselves part of the “Russian Federation.”
What happens next?
Russia’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk and it’s legalization of current battle positions is unacceptable per international law, but could end the fighting and human loss in the area. If this is the end of Putin’s current game-plan, the world would be very unhappy but relieved. The real worry is if Russia invades the rest of Ukraine. That would lead to thousands of casualties and make a mockery of the sovereignty and treaties of countries. In 1994, Russia, US, and the UK guaranteed Ukraine their security to give up nuclear weapons. However, concern with Russian casualties, the US, Chinese, and global stance, and the German threat of canceling a major pipeline (Nord Stream2) have many concluding that Putin will not go for full-fledged invasion. Russia cannot be in combat formation for too long, so his plans will be apparent in next few days.
What does it mean for American security and economy?
The direct impact on the US and Europe will be high energy and commodity prices. Russia is a significant exporter of oil, natural gas, wheat, and other commodities, and any western sanctions could see retaliation from Russia on these critical items. Hence, it is clear that Putin has a strong hand and understands that a “small incursion” will not lead to much of a western response. The US, at this time, is the largest oil and gas producer in the world, and any such price increases should be temporary for US. So overall, the impact on our economy and security can be expected to be small.
State Rep. Harry Arora is the Ranking Member of the Labor Committee and a Member of the Human Services, Energy & Technology Committee.
Editor’s Note: This was originally sent to the Greenwich Sentinel the week prior to the Russian’s invasion of Ukraine.
