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RMA Presents “Moving beyond nudges: The role of behavioral science in solving some of the most complex social and economic issues of our time”

Students likely to drop out of college persisted and excelled when interventions based on behavioral science research were deployed.

By Fred Wu

At the February 7 meeting of the RMA, Bob Phillips introduced Josh Wright, Executive Director of ideas42 and a recognized leader in applied behavioral science. Before leading ideas42, Josh led the Office of Financial Education and Access at the US Treasury Department. He also held previous leadership positions at the Center for Community Change, Random House, Inc., and Booz Allen Hamilton. He holds a B.A. in Economics from Wesleyan University and an MBA from the Yale School of Management.

Josh began by introducing himself and ideas42, an organization applying behavioral science to tackle real-world problems. He explained that ideas42 was founded by academics from prestigious universities to take insights emerging from research in behavioral economics and psychology and apply them to issues like poverty, inequality, health, education, and justice. The organization uses an interdisciplinary approach combining economics, machine learning, psychology, and more to design solutions for problems in over 40 countries, partnering with governments, foundations, and companies.

Josh outlined the agenda for his talk which would provide a brief overview of behavioral science concepts and how they are being used to address two key areas – college completion rates and poverty reduction.

He then delved into explaining two major insights from behavioral science. The first is that humans have a range of quirks, biases, and tendencies leading them to make suboptimal or odd choices in different situations. He demonstrated this via an interactive example asking the audience to estimate their likelihood of outcomes like getting cancer or getting divorced. He highlighted the bias of overconfidence. His core message was that these types of quirks are universal, not limited to any particular subset of people.

The second big insight Josh shared was that context plays a huge role driving variability and predictability in human decision making, far more so than individual personality traits. He used a historical example around the cockpit design of the B-17 bomber during WWII to illustrate this insight.

Next, Josh gave the audience a high-level overview of ideas42’s methodology which emphasizes rigorously diagnosing the specific behavioral bottlenecks causing a problem prior to designing tailored solutions.

Transitioning to real-world applications, Josh analyzed the issue of persistently low college graduation rates in the US, which essentially have remained stagnant for decades. Only 60% of students at 4-year institutions complete college even after 6 years. The problem is even more severe for underrepresented minority groups like African American males.

Josh shared research ideas42 conducted at San Francisco State University suggesting that struggles with belonging and fitting in, rather than academic ability per se, are pivotal factors driving student drop out decisions. They designed an intervention using peer stories about overcoming self-doubt and hard times during the college journey to help give incoming students a more realistic expectation and assurances that experiencing some difficulties is normal. The intervention combined with supportive reminder texts led to a 10 percentage point reduction in drop outs, with positive spillover effects on GPAs as well.

Shifting focus, Josh discussed how insights from behavioral science can provide a different and deeper understanding of poverty. He explained how conditions of scarcity and lack of resources capture mental bandwidth, limiting cognitive capacities essential for planning and decision making. As an example, Josh described an experiment performed on conscientious objector volunteers during WWII, in which the subjects experienced severe food scarcity over an extended period. The starving participants were shown movies and asked what they recalled most vividly; even though these were young men, it was not the beautiful actresses, but the scenes of eating food that they recalled. Thinking about something obsessively alters the mind and consequently behavior as well. For people in poverty, thinking about money all the time can result in harmful short-term decisions, such as taking out payday loans despite extremely high interest rates. Given these cognitive impacts, poverty becomes self-reinforcing and very challenging to escape.

Josh highlighted ideas like universal basic income as potential solutions that could alleviate scarcity constraints and empower more beneficial decision making. He also touched on other interventions informed by behavioral research targeting issues like obesity.

In closing, Josh fielded audience questions on topics like political polarization, messaging approaches including using data versus narratives, and voter motivation. On polarization, he emphasized understanding the mindsets and perceived threats underlying opposing perspectives rather than attacking character. He argued that expanding civic participation among disaffected moderate voices would help counter rising polarization trends.

The talk can be viewed by going to the RMA website at https://greenwichrma.org, and clicking on “Speakers.”

The RMA’s upcoming presentation, “The Lumumba Plot: The Secret History of the CIA and a Cold War Assassination,” by Stuart A. Reid, is scheduled for 11 AM on Wednesday, February 21, 2024.

Stuart A. Reid is the author of “The Lumumba Plot: The Secret History of the CIA and a Cold War Assassination” (2023), a New Yorker magazine Best Book of the Year and a New York Times Book Review Editors’ Choice.

“The Lumumba Plot” is the story of the early days of Congo’s independence. A country nearly four times the size of France, Congo gained its independence from Belgium in June, 1960 and quickly was plunged into chaos as Patrice Lumumba, Joseph Mobutu and others jockeyed for supremacy. The Cold War was in progress, and Congo became a pawn in the struggle between the U.S. and Russia. In its early days of independence, Patrice Lumumba, Congo’s first Prime Minister, rose to international prominence as a young and charismatic leader. Even as he tried to develop support from the United Nations and factions across his vast country, he was targeted by the CIA as well as by internal rivals. This tumultuous birth of a new country is the basis for “The Lumumba Plot,” a fine work of history and an unforgettable story.

Stuart Reid is an executive editor of Foreign Affairs. He has written for The Atlantic, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Bloomberg Businessweek, Politico Magazine, Slate and other publications. A graduate of Dartmouth College, he lives in New Jersey with his wife and children.

To stream the presentation by Stuart Reid at 11 AM on Wednesday, February 21, click on https://bit.ly/30IBj21. This presentation will also be available on local public access TV channels, Verizon FIOS channel 24 and Optimum (Cablevision) channel 79.

Note: The views expressed in these presentations are those of the speakers. They are not intended to represent the views of the RMA or its members.

RMA speaker presentations are presented as a community service at no cost to in-person or Zoom attendees, regardless of gender. Any member of the public who would like to receive a weekly email announcement of future speakers should send a request to members@greenwichrma.org. The RMA urges all eligible individuals to consider becoming a member of our great organization, and thereby enjoy all the available fellowship, volunteer, and community service opportunities which the RMA offers to its members. For further information, go to https://greenwichrma.org/, or contact members@greenwichrma.org.

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